QPR, Hull and Leicester are set to be relegated from this season’s Premier League.
That’s according to predictions by the Trinity Mirror Data Unit, which supplies The Wharf with its statistics. Chelsea winning the title seems like a foregone conclusion but Manchester City finishing fourth would be more shattering.
Meanwhile, according to the number crunchers and form followers West Ham will relinquish ninth place and finish 10th on 51 points, seeing Saturday’s visitors Stoke go above them, making the Potters’ 95th minute equaliser a key turning point of the season.
The predictions suggest that QPR will finish bottom of the pile with just 29 points to their name.
They’re not expected to get any points from their away fixtures to Liverpool, Manchester City and Leicester, and will average just 0.7 points per game in their last five fixtures.
Hull have a tough end to the season with games against Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester United to contend with.
Steve Bruce’s side look set find themselves second from bottom averaging just 0.4 points per game from their run-in, with games against Crystal Palace, Burnley and Spurs their only source of points.
Leicester look set to have a late push, averaging 0.9 points per game in their remaining fixtures, but are likely to fall just short of survival with 31 points.
Sunderland are predicted to avoid the drop on 33 points, as will Burnley who look set to go on a run averaging 1.3 points per game.
Chelsea should finish the season as Champions on 88 points, 10 ahead of their nearest competition Arsenal on 78.
The battle between the two Manchester sides looks set to finish in United’s favour, with Louis Van Gaal’s team on 74 points to City’s 73.
To make the predictions, the league was broken down into five bands of four teams with Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City in band five, and Hull, QPR, Burnley and Leicester in band one for example.
The average number of points won by each team against sides in those bands were then calculated for home and away fixtures.
These averages were then cross referenced against the bands of the teams in their upcoming games, to project how many points they would get from these matches based on past performances against similar sides.
Predicted pos | Current pos | Club | Predicted points
1 | 1 | Chelsea | 88
2 | 2 | Arsenal | 78
3 | 3 | Man Utd | 74
4 | 4 | Man City | 73
5 | 5 | Liverpool | 66
6 | 7 | Tottenham | 66
7 | 6 | Southampton | 65
8 | 10 | Stoke | 56
9 | 8 | Swansea | 55
10 | 9 | West Ham | 51
11 | 11 | Crystal Palace | 48
12 | 12 | Everton | 47
13 | 13 | Newcastle | 45
14 | 15 | Aston Villa | 37
15 | 14 | West Brom | 36
16 | 19 | Burnley | 33
17 | 16 | Sunderland | 33
18 | 20 | Leicester | 31
19 | 17 | Hull | 30
20 | 18 | QPR | 29