Data blog: Why West Ham should avoid relegation
West Ham are safe! (Er, theoretically.) According to our number crunching, West Ham are due to get 40 points by the season's end. And that would mean safety in all but three of the 18 seasons of the 20-team format.
See below to see how we've figured it out.
We've taken every season since the Premier League moved to the 20 teams format and found the points required to finish above the relegation zone (the points of team in 18th +1).
We have then taken the points per game average of each team in the current Premier League with less than 30 points to give a projection of how many points they will have at the end of the season.
West Ham, with 40 points, would be safe in all but three of the 18 season in our dataset - as would Swansea and Aston Villa (both with 40).
West Brom, with 35 projected points, would only have avoided relegation in seven of the 18 seasons, the same as Sunderland who have 36 projected points.
Cardiff's 32 projected points would only have seen them avoid relegation on one season - 09/10.
On average a team needs 37 points to avoid relegation. This means Norwich, West Brom, Sunderland and Cardiff are all under threat as they are not on course to reach this milestone.